A fraqueza da economia deve dar ao Brasil uma triste marca ao fim do ano que vem. A taxa média de crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) da atual década deve ser a mais baixa dos últimos 120 anos.

De 2011 a 2020, o crescimento médio do Brasil deve ser de apenas 0,9% ao ano, projeta um estudo do Instituto Brasileiro de Economia, da Fundação Getúlio Vargas (Ibre/FGV). Se a previsão for confirmada, a economia brasileira vai registrar um desempenho mais fraco até mesmo do que o observado nos anos 1980, período chamado de “década perdida”, quando o PIB avançou em média apenas 1,6% ao ano no período.

O levantamento do Ibre utiliza como base a série histórica do PIB apurada pelo Instituto de Pesquisas Econômica Aplicada (Ipea) e as projeções para 2019 e 2020 do relatório Focus, do Banco Central, que colhe a avaliação de analistas para a economia brasileira.

O desempenho atual é explicado, segundo os analistas, pela piora das condições macroeconômicas do Brasil. Desde 2014, a economia brasileira tem colhido sucessivos déficits nas contas públicas, o que levou a um aumento acelerado da dívida do país e, consequentemente, da desconfiança com a saúde financeira, afetando diretamente a taxa de crescimento da economia.

“Houve uma grande desarrumação da economia nesta década. Os erros de política econômica levaram a uma queda muito forte do PIB em alguns anos e agora produzem uma lenta recuperação”, afirma o pesquisador do Ibre/FGV e responsável pelo estudo, Marcel Balassiano.

Em 2015 e 2016, por exemplo, a atividade econômica recuou 3,5% e 3,3%, respectivamente. Foi um marco negativo para a histórica econômica do país. O Brasil não registrava um dois anos seguidos de recessão desde 1930 e 1931, quando o mundo foi afetado pelos efeitos da crise econômica de 1929, quando ocorreu a quebra da bolsa de Nova York.

Para piorar o cenário da década atual, os sinais da lenta retomada estão se consolidando. Nos últimos dois anos, o PIB avançou apenas 1,1%. Em 2019, o desempenho da economia começou de forma lenta, e os analistas já reduziram a projeção de crescimento de 3% para 2%. Na última sexta-feira (22), o ministério da Economia também reduziu sua previsão de alta do PIB para este ano, de 2,5% para 2,2%.

“A saída da recessão mais recente está mais difícil por algumas razões”, afirma o economista-chefe da consultoria MB Associados, Sergio Vale. “Na saída da recessão, não tínhamos disponíveis os instrumentos clássicos de política monetária e fiscal para estimular a economia: a inflação estava em dois dígitos e o fiscal era a origem do problema.”

Além dos problemas de características mais estruturais apontados pelos economistas, fatores pontuais têm prejudicado a retomada. Em 2018, a greve dos caminhoneiros e a incerteza com o quadro eleitoral afetaram a atividade. A desaceleração da economia mundial, sobretudo da Argentina, importante parceira comercial do Brasil, também está colaborando para minar uma retomada mais forte.

“Este ano ainda temos um pouco de resquícios desses choques: a Argentina e o mundo seguem em desaceleração, afetando o crescimento do começo de 2019”, diz Vale.

Foco no Fiscal

Se quiser acelerar o crescimento da economia nos próximos anos, o governo vai ter de endereçar a questão das contas públicas, de acordo com analistas. No centro do debate, está a reforma da Previdência. Ela é considerada fundamental para o acerto das contas do governo e, dessa forma, pode contribuir na atração de investimentos para acelerar o crescimento econômico.

A proposta apresentada pela equipe econômica liderada pela administração Bolsonaro projeta uma economia de R$ 1,16 trilhão em 10 anos. A equipe econômica e política do governo avalia que a proposta deve ser aprovada ainda no primeiro semestre.

“O nosso problema fiscal é enorme e precisa ser resolvido para permitir a volta de algum crescimento mais robusto”, afirma Balassiano, do Ibre – neste ano, a meta do governo é de um déficit de até R$ 139 bilhões.

Sem a aprovação da reforma, os analistas avaliam que o crescimento deste ano tende a ser ainda mais baixo do que os 2% projetados atualmente.

Crise dos anos 1980

Até a década atual, o período de mais baixo crescimento do país foi registrado nos anos 1980. Naquele período, a economia brasileira enfrentou uma combinação perversa.

No cenário internacional, houve uma piora das condições financeiras, com alta de juros pelas principais economias. Internamente, o Brasil passava pelo período de redemocratização, lidando com um quadro de baixo crescimento, descontrole fiscal e aumento da inflação – o país enfrentou vários planos de estabilização.

“Entre os principais fatores que levaram ao quadro de instabilidade dos anos 80 está o esgotamento do modelo de industrialização promovido pelo Estado desde os anos 30, com um endividamento público agudo”, afirma a economista e sócia da consultoria Tendências, Alessandra Ribeiro.

Em 1987, o governo brasileiro chegou a declarar moratória e suspendeu o pagamento de credores internacionais.

Fonte: G1

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