O Brasil tem uma nova safra recorde de grãos praticamente assegurada para 2022, mas os preços dos alimentos devem permanecer elevados, avaliou Carlos Alfredo Guedes, gerente do Levantamento Sistemático da Produção Agrícola do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE).

“Independentemente de uma safra recorde, os preços não devem cair, porque a gente tem uma demanda muito grande dos outros países. Isso influencia no mercado como um todo”, disse Guedes nesta quinta-feira (7).

Ele lembra que os preços dos grãos estão elevados desde o aumento da demanda e problemas logísticos provocados pela pandemia de Covid-19 no cenário externo, que agora permanece sob impacto da invasão da Ucrânia pela Rússia. Para Carlos Guedes, “a tendência é os preços continuarem elevados nos próximos meses”.

“Os preços sofrem mais influência do mercado externo do que do mercado interno”, afirmou. “E acaba que dentro dos produtos, que são os principais grãos, eles mexem com outros produtos. Porque o produtor acaba direcionando suas áreas pras culturas que estão mais valorizadas”, acrescentou.

Safra recorde

A safra agrícola brasileira deve totalizar um recorde de 261,4 milhões de toneladas em 2022, 8,2 milhões de toneladas a mais que o desempenho de 2021, um aumento de 3,2%, de acordo com o Levantamento Sistemático da Produção Agrícola de junho, divulgado pelo IBGE nesta quinta. O resultado é 1,5 milhão de toneladas menor que o previsto no levantamento anterior, de maio, uma queda de 0,6%.

“A gente tem trigo, que ainda pode apresentar problemas climáticos na colheita, mas não tem peso tão grande quanto soja e milho”, lembrou Guedes.

Apesar de perdas no cultivo de soja, o país deve ter as maiores colheitas já vistas para o milho e o trigo. As safras de arroz e feijão, por ora, atendem ao consumo doméstico, disse o gerente do IBGE.

A estimativa da produção de feijão, considerando-se as três safras do grão, deve ser de 3,087 milhões de toneladas, alta de 11,2% ante 2021, embora 3,4% menor que o estimado em maio. A estimativa de produção do arroz é de 10,7 milhões de toneladas, queda de 8,1% em relação ao ano passado provocada por problemas climáticos no Rio Grande do Sul.

“O feijão ainda atende a demanda interna”, disse Guedes. “E o arroz também. Na verdade, a gente teve produções muito boas de arroz nos últimos dois anos. Caiu um pouco este ano”, disse ele, lembrando que algumas áreas com plantações de arroz no Rio Grande do Sul não tiveram água suficiente para serem irrigadas durante um período de estiagem.

Trigo

A produção nacional de trigo deve alcançar um recorde de 8,863 milhões de toneladas este ano, um avanço de 13,4% em comparação com 2021, segundo os dados hoje divulgados pelo IBGE. Na comparação com a projeção de maio, houve uma redução de 0,2% em junho.

“Nosso consumo gira em torno de 12 milhões de toneladas. A gente ainda importa, mas vai importar menos do que importava em anos anteriores”, disse Carlos Guedes. “Se a gente conseguir colher em torno de 9 milhões (de toneladas), a gente teria que importar entre 3 milhões e 4 milhões de toneladas. Em alguns momentos a gente importou muito mais para abastecer o mercado”, acrescentou.

O pesquisador lembra que os preços do trigo estão em alta por causa da invasão da Rússia à Ucrânia, ambos os países produtores e exportadores de trigo, o que incentiva os agricultores brasileiros a investirem na cultura.

Quanto aos demais principais cereais de inverno produzidos pelo Brasil, a estimativa para a colheita da aveia em 2022 é de 1,1 milhão de toneladas, crescimento de 0,2% em relação ao previsto no mês anterior. Se confirmada, a produção terá um aumento de 8,3% em relação ao colhido em 2021.

Para a cevada, a produção foi estimada em 483,2 mil toneladas, alta de 1,6% em relação ao estimado em maio. O montante é 10,6% superior ao registrado em 2021.

Milho

As revisões nas estimativas para a colheita de milho de segunda safra e de soja reduziram a projeção para a safra de grãos brasileira em 2022. Na passagem de maio para junho, a projeção para o milho de segunda safra encolheu e mais de 900 mil toneladas, enquanto a de soja diminuiu em mais de 650 mil toneladas.

“O milho foi condições climáticas, principalmente no Paraná, problema de excesso de chuvas, que está trazendo algumas doenças”, disse Carlos Guedes. Segundo ele, o excesso de chuvas na região Sul do país também tem prejudicado o desempenho do feijão de segunda safra. No caso da soja, que já está praticamente toda colhida, houve reavaliação nos dados de Mato Grosso do Sul. “Acredito que a gente não tenha mais grandes reavaliações na soja. É um produto que já está praticamente colhido”, justificou.


Autor: O Estado de São Paulo

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