Nos últimos dez anos, Brasil, Argentina e Chile, integrantes do Cone Sul, registraram um aumento de 56% na produção agrícola, frente a 29% da média global, reforçando o processo de desenvolvimento e alavancagem da economia e dos investimentos. Pensando na importância desse setor econômico para os três países sul-americanos, a EY acaba de lançar o estudo “Top 10 riscos e oportunidades para o Agro”, que contou com a avaliação de executivos de empresas dos três países, sendo 59% destes com cargos C-level.
No Brasil, com mais de R$ 2 trilhões gerados, o agro corresponde a 28% do PIB, respondendo por 20,3% dos postos de trabalho, como indica o Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada (CEPEA), da USP (Universidade de São Paulo).
Apesar disso, como qualquer setor, a prática do agronegócio tem seus riscos. A pesquisa buscou se aprofundar e elencar os maiores perigos ao agro atualmente.
Riscos e oportunidades
As mudanças climáticas aparecem como principal risco e podem impactar diretamente a produtividade do setor.
Além das variações das temperaturas em si, a maior ocorrência de ‘eventos extremos’ como fortes geadas, variações de temperatura fora de época e chuvas de alto volume também são problemas já que o aumento da imprevisibilidade climática impacta não apenas a produtividade do campo, como também investimentos e movimentos financeiros que empresas, bancos e demais entidades fazem, como a concessão de crédito rural.
De acordo com a pesquisa realizada pelo EY Decarbonization Framework, 47% dos investidores reconsiderariam o investimento com base nos riscos climáticos.
“Esse indicativo reforça a importância de as empresas precisarem estar informadas e preparadas nos seus modelos de análise tanto sobre como o clima quanto sobre como a inevitável mudança climática impactará diretamente os riscos financeiros e operacionais de forma cada vez mais relevante. O agronegócio é uma ‘indústria a céu aberto’ e, por causa disso, ter gestão ativa dos riscos climáticos é atividade crítica do core business do setor”, afirma Alexandre Rangel, sócio-líder de consultoria para o setor de agronegócios da EY para América Latina Sul.
Infraestrutura
Em segundo lugar, vêm os gargalos na infraestrutura, que tem o sistema rodoviário como principal modal de transporte.
“A despeito dos grandes investimentos recentes, a produção do Agro no Brasil continua a aumentar de tal forma que a limitação dos modais de transporte e, principalmente, a falta de armazenagem na cadeia permanecem como grande entrave para a maior competitividade do agronegócio no Brasil. Hoje algumas regiões do país já conseguem colocar soja no mercado chinês com um custo de transporte simular a produtores do meio-oeste americano, mas isso ainda não acontece em todas as regiões do Brasil. Precisamos atingir de forma homogênea o mesmo nível de eficiência e investimento privado no transporte tal como fizemos na produção do Agro”, conta Rangel.
Segundo a Confederação Nacional do Transporte, 62% das rodovias do país são inadequadas, apenas 30 mil quilômetros de ferrovias e um terço dos rios que têm capacidade para transporte hidroviário em grande escala são utilizados.
Para o executivo, depois de décadas de pouco investimento dos governos em transporte hidroviário e ferroviário e a despeito dos esforços recentes, ainda existe falta de alternativas de logística de grande volume mais eficientes em determinados corredores de transporte para as novas regiões produtoras.
Isso prejudica a competitividade dos produtos, eleva o custo de produção e resulta em perdas durante o processo de transporte, tanto dos insumos quanto da produção agrícola do país. É fundamental acelerar os investimentos privados em ferrovias, novos portos e principalmente em armazenamento.
Estima-se que as perdas logísticas da soja e do milho, por exemplo, equivalem a 2,44% da produção, o que corresponde a R$ 4,5 bilhões.
“Quando falamos de infraestrutura, também temos que considerar como risco a falta de espaço para armazenagem, que gera redução do lucro dos agricultores, que precisam escoar seus produtos sem capacidade e tempo hábil de exercer melhores negociações”, ressalta o porta-voz.
Agricultura de baixo carbono
Fechando o top 3, o estudo traz a agricultura de baixo carbono como oportunidade que deve se tornar uma prática cada vez mais urgente no Brasil, já que o país vem se comprometendo com a mitigação das emissões de gases de efeito estufa. Para isso, o plantio direto, a recuperação de pastagens degradadas, o tratamento de dejetos animais e a integração lavoura-pecuária-florestas são alguns dos caminhos que se adotam, com linhas de crédito específicas para tal.
“Além disso, a participação da esfera pública é essencial na criação de incentivos positivos para a descarbonização das cadeias produtivas, viabilizando um número cada vez maior de produtores e empresas do agronegócio com práticas sustentáveis”, diz Alexandre.
“O setor tem que ser sustentável, mas não pode ter prejuízo por isso. Para ser mais eficiente é preciso contar com fontes de financiamento de práticas sustentáveis, lembrando que os bancos têm suas próprias metas de descarbonização. Isso tem que ser tratado como oportunidade e não como punição ao produtor”, completa o executivo.
Os outros riscos e oportunidades que compõem o estudo completo são produtividade e custos; restrição ao uso de agroquímicos; ética e compliance; intervenção governamental e reformas regulatórias; qualificação da mão de obra e cultura inovadora; rentabilidade e variação cambial; e profissionalização e evolução da governança.
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