A Agroconsult projetou, nesta quarta-feira (11), produção de soja do Brasil em 2022/23 de 153,4 milhões de toneladas, aumento de 18,7% ante o ciclo anterior. O número foi divulgado na entrevista coletiva de lançamento da “20ª edição do Rally da Safra”. Esta é a primeira projeção oficial divulgada para a temporada, mas, em outubro, em evento da B3, a consultoria havia indicado potencial produtivo de 153,5 milhões de toneladas.
A Agroconsult estima área plantada de 43,2 milhões de hectares com soja, 3,9% acima de 2021/22. A produtividade média, por ora, está projetada em 59,2 sacas por hectare.
Mato Grosso, o principal estado produtor da oleaginosa no país, deve colher 60 sacas por hectare em 2022/23, ante 61,2 sacas/ha na temporada anterior. O Paraná, por sua vez, deve atingir rendimento de 61,5 sacas/ha, contra 38,2 sacas/ha um ano antes. Enquanto isso, o Rio Grande do Sul deve atingir 51,5 sacas/ha, superando os 27 sacas/ha da safra 21/22.
RS preocupa na produtividade da soja
O Rio Grande do Sul é a maior preocupação desta safra, segundo a equipe da Agroconsult. Isso porque o estado registrou atraso no plantio. Por isso, as lavouras gaúchas durante período mais seco em dezembro ainda não estavam em período crítico para potencial produtivo, como ocorreu no ciclo anterior. “Já temos perdas de produtividade, precisa de mais chuvas para consolidar 51,5 sacas/ha”, disse o coordenador-geral da expedição, André Debastiani.
Segundo ele, a perspectiva é de uma safra boa “apesar dos desafios pela frente”, como a regularização das chuvas em janeiro e fevereiro. “É uma safra novamente sob influência do La Niña, com volume de chuvas mais baixo que o normal, a diferença (ante 2021/22) foi a distribuição um pouco mais uniforme”, afirma.
Conforme Debastiani, o cenário melhor em 2022/23 em termos de distribuição das precipitações nas áreas produtoras “tem feito toda a diferença”.
Autor: Agência Safras
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